Kernel Holding S.A. Annual Report and Accounts for the year ended 30 June 2023 |
Sustainability: TCFD disclosure
The risk management framework operates
five risk categories: strategic (business), op-
erational, financial, regulatory, and sustaina-
bility. In terms of climate-related risks, strate-
gic (business) and operational categories ac-
count for physical climate long-term and
short-term risks, respectively. Transitional cli-
mate risks are covered by the regulatory cat-
egory and sustainability category, covering a
broader group of environmental and social
risks. For the purpose of annual operational
planning, the company re-evaluates and up-
dates the matrix of top-10 risks, which are
then approved by the Board of Directors. The
risk of acute climate events in the production
cycle is embedded in the risk category 'weak
harvest in Ukraine'. The risk of weak harvest
is applied to each business segment of the
company: (1) Kernel's own farming operations
(direct impact); (2) capacity utilization of Ker-
nel's silos and export terminals due to physi-
cal shortage of grain on the market and oil
crushing margins due to limited supply of
oilseeds (indirect impact); (3) export value
chain, because the majority of Kernel's grain
export volumes normally originates from third-
party suppliers.
The risk management process is imple-
mented by the Board of Directors, executive
management, and operational management
on an ongoing basis. Risks of substantial fi-
nancial impact are considered by the Board of
Directors, and other risks are maintained at
the executive management and operational
management levels. Indeed, the executive
management team ensures that all risks are
systematically identified, quantified, moni-
tored, mitigated, and managed daily.
Within the 'Climate change strategy and low-
carbon pathway' project, Kernel works to inte-
grate a more articulated approach to the iden-
tification, evaluation, and management of cli-
mate physical and transition risks in line with
the TCFD recommendations. This includes an
assessment of the impacts of climate-re-
lated risks on the enterprise value.
With regards to climate physical risks, such an
approach involves the regular assessment of
climate change information provided by the
Regional Climate Models (specifically
CMIP6 Projections using SSP 2.6-4.5 and
SSP 8.5 scenarios to inform management de-
cisions) to understand the dynamic of climate
change impact across Kernel's landbank in
the long-term perspective. Relevant parame-
ters of these scenarios are used for stress-
testing Kernel's financial model, allowing it
to evaluate the Group's exposure to long-term
climate change impacts and their monetary in-
terpretation (i.e. impact on EBITDA). Evalua-
tion of transitional climate risks is also to be
reflected in the company's financial model and
accounts for implications of both domestic
and European carbon regulations.
The interconnection between climate physical
and transitional risks is linked to the assump-
tion that SSP 2.6-4.5 scenarios would imply
that carbon regulations will be tightened sig-
nificantly and will strongly affect the Com-
pany’s performance, but the Company will be
less exposed to the physical risks, whereas
SSP 8.5 scenario implies that carbon regula-
tions will be tightened moderately and softly
affect the company’s performance, but in
turns the company will be more exposed to
the physical risks.
Kernel's approaches to the identification, as-
sessment, and management of climate risks
are the following:
• Climate physical risks are evaluated on
the operational level. Kernel's modelling
and monitoring team (consists of experts in
practical application of geographic infor-
mation systems, or GIS) as well as financial
and business analytics undertaking ongo-
ing monitoring of key climatic indicators
(data obtained from the company's own
meteorological stations and satellite data
,which reflects the vegetational response to
weather conditions, such as NDVI indica-
tors) and their interconnections with finan-
cial and business performance. Further-
more, the farming segment holds strategic
sessions twice a year before spring and
winter sowing campaigns where Kernel’s
agricultural experts, building on this analy-
sis, undertake short-term business plan-
ning, profound consultation, and decision-
making on managing acute climate risks
and adaptation practices.
• In terms of chronic climate risks, the mon-
itoring is based on the company's practical
observations and analysis of available
agrometeorological research on changes in
Ukraine's climate zones and yield dynam-
ics. To that end, Kernel's business analysts
undertake a regular analysis of harvest re-
sults of both Kernel and other agriculture
companies in Ukraine and compare these
indicators between geographic regions.
Such exercises help to identify climate pat-
terns and tendencies across the company's
land bank, which are used to make in-
formed long-term strategic decisions re-
garding the geographic location of assets.
Such decisions are made at the level of the
executive management team or at the level
of the Board of Directors if the monetary im-
plication of risk is higher than the estab-
lished substantial strategic impact thresh-
old.
• Identification of climate transitional risks
is undertaken by Kernel's sustainability
manager through the ongoing monitoring of
developments in domestic and EU carbon
regulations. Transitional risks, flagged by
the sustainability manager, are evaluated in
terms of their monetary impact together
with financial and business analytics. It is
then brought up to the executive manage-
ment team or the Board of Directors atten-
tion if the impact of the risk is considered
significant. Evaluation of climate transi-
tional risks is based on analysis of NGFS
(Network for Greening the Financial Sys-
tem) scenarios of carbon prices within EU
ETS and in Ukraine. Analysis of these sce-
narios and financial implication of climate
transitional risks, as well as information on
key drivers of these risks (i.e. develop-
ments in EU and domestic climate regula-
tions), are updated on an annual basis and
approved by the Audit Committee at the
Board of Directors.
Material climate-related risks
Chronic physical risks
For Kernel's operations, chronic physical cli-
mate risks are relevant from the perspective
of long-term strategic impact on the location
of assets. Analysis of the overall dynamic in
the climate system across the territory of
Ukraine demonstrates a gradual shift in the
boundaries of natural zones (woodlands, for-
est-steppe, steppe) towards the northwest.
The shift in climate zones leads to an exten-
sion of land that falls under the category of
risky farming and, therefore, to the increased
price of lease agreements for agricultural land
suitable for growing grain and oilseeds (the
so-called ‘corn belt of Ukraine’).
Assessment and monitoring of dynamics in
climate conditions on Kernel's landbank are
ongoing and involve (1) analysis of meteoro-
logical data obtained from Kernel's meteoro-
logical stations (a total of 51 stations) and sat-
ellite climate change data obtained from GIS
solutions frameworks such as GEOSIS, un-
dertaken by the modelling and monitoring
team, and (2) retrospective analysis of har-
vest from both Kernel's landbank and in
Ukraine in general, made by the team of finan-
cial and business analysts.
For the purpose of ongoing monitoring of
changes in the vegetation and visualization of
climate-related data relevant to the regions of
the company’s operations and potential ex-
pansion, Kernel has a subscription to the pro-
vider of GIS solutions (geographic information
system), GEOSIS Technologies. These solu-
tions allow to consolidate and analyze climate
climate-related data and relevant patterns ob-
tained from satellite images. The cost of the
response to climate chronic physical risks
also includes technical maintenance of Ker-
nel's own agrometeorological stations, IT sup-
port and development of the company’s Digi-
tal Agribusiness program, and maintenance of
the company’s own drones that undertake re-
mote sensing of the landbank.
Acute physical risks
The risk of acute climatic events resulting in
decreased yields is a basic risk for the agricul-
ture business. Within Kernel's risk manage-
ment framework, this risk is reflected in the
risk category 'Weak harvest in Ukraine', which
is normally included in the top-10 company’s